Goaltender Options for the Flyers - Part 3

Part 3 of my “Goaltender Options for the Flyers” series will include a couple of “international” goaltenders, and additionally, I will give you my final opinion on what I’d like the Flyers to do.

Part 1 of the series covered Unrestricted Free Agent Options. Part 2 covered Restricted Free Agent Options as well as trade possibilities.

Before I begin, I’d just like to make an update to one of my previous entries. I read a rumor today from Eklund (love him or hate him…I personally hate him) that I thought I’d just throw out there. It said that Giguere is apparently Holmgren’s Plan A this offseason. Although Giguere has his no trade clause and was in the Anaheim area for his son’s eye condition, he doesn’t really want to be a backup goalie, and if the Ducks plan to stick with Hiller he may consider moving. If true, it is certainly interesting news. The Flyers would definitely need to shed some salary in order to get him. To me that means Briere, Lupul, Carle, Jones or maybe Gagne.

Ray Emery

It pains me to even make this entry, but I told a friend I would, and I’d also like to shed a bit of light on him. He has been playing in Russia this past season after nobody in the NHL wanted him (or at least wouldn’t pay him what he wanted). Recently, there was word that the Flyers had contacted his agent. I guess it’s good that the Flyers are considering every option, they should be; but Ray Emery is not a very good goaltender. Ray Emery had one decent season, the only one in which he was the full-time starter. In 2006-2007 he posted a 2.47 GAA and a save percentage of .918; both of which are pretty good numbers. However, I see no reason to believe that wasn’t a complete fluke. He was on a GREAT Ottawa Senators team; a team that had 105 points that season. For comparison, the Flyers had 99 pts this past season, and Biron’s numbers were arguably better (the SV% was, the GAA wasn’t).  In my opinion, Emery rode that awesome Senators team to the Stanley Cup Final, where they were promptly run over by Anaheim.  Somehow, Emery managed to convince people he was a good starting goalie. He managed to get himself a nice contract ($3.167 million cap hit), and was bought out shortly thereafter by the Senators when he showed his true colors. Those true colors being a GAA of 3.13 and a SV% of .890. Oh yea, did I mention that as part of being bought out, you then have to clear waivers? That means every single team in the league passed on him. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say that no team wanted him at a hit of 3.167 million. However, that doesn’t then explain why nobody wanted him as a free agent, when they could sign him for whatever price they see fit. The explanation is one of two things. Either literally nobody wanted him, or he thinks way too highly of himself, and wouldn’t sign the contracts being offered to him. Both of those don’t speak well for Mr. Emery. Oh yea, I haven’t even gotten into the fact that he’s apparently a coke head (with former teammate Brian McGratton), was perpetually late for practice, and beat up his trainer.

There is however, one situation in which I wouldn’t really care if the Flyers signed Ray Emery; and that is one in which there is very low risk and high reward. If it were a supremely cheap deal, I wouldn’t care. Ideally, it would be a 2 way contract so we could stick him in the AHL if need be, but I can’t see him signing that. As long as he isn’t “the answer” for our starting goalie (meaning we bring in someone along with Emery), he isn’t a cap burden, and we can get rid of him in an instant, if we have to, I don’t care.

Jonas Gustavsson

So here is the real prize on the international free agent market. Gustavsson is just 24 years old and has been playing in the Swedish Elite League. This past season he posted a 1.96 GAA and a SV% of .932. He’s the best undrafted goaltending prospect to come out of the Swedish Elite League as far as I know. Even better than Henrik Lundqvist who is actually more comparable to Johan Backlund, who the Flyers signed. Unfortuantely, Gustavsson is still subject to Entry Level Contract requirements so the contract isn’t really going to be an issue of money. He apparently is very good friends with Toronto’s goalie coach, which makes nearly everyone think they are the front runner. I’ve also had rumblings that Dallas is an option as Turco only has one year left on his deal, and hasn’t been his usual self. Some rather disturbing news is that apparently in a recent Flyers Town Hall meeting (one in which season ticket holders are invited to ask questions to Flyers coaches and front office members), Chris Pryor, the Flyers Director of Hockey Operations, was asked about Gustavsson, to which he replied they had never even heard of him. Now maybe the fan asking the question pronounced his name horribly wrong or something, but if the Flyers truly haven’t heard of this guy…that’s really bad. All of that said, I’d absolutely love for the Flyers to sign this guy but I just can’t see it happening. Signs point toward him signing in Toronto or Dallas.

Feel free to check out his YouTube highlight reel complete with questionable music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5wdNeANGT4

So considering all of the options I laid out, this is what I’d like to see done. This isn’t necessarily what I think will happen, but what I would want to see. Firstly, I want to trade for Josh Harding. I don’t need to go into what I think of him as a player because I already did that previously, so let’s focus on how to acquire him. As I said before, I think that an offer sheet of 2.6 million would get it done as I don’t think Minnesota would want to match that offer (presumably one of multiple years) when they just signed Backstrom to a deal paying him $6 million for the next four years. $8.6 million is a lot of money to spend on goalies. That said, the compensation level at that salary is a 2^nd round pick, and the Flyers don’t have a 2^nd round pick, so they are unable to do that. Therefore, they can do one of two things. Just let/hope Harding resigns in Minnesota (not very farfetched as most RFA’s resign with their clubs), or attempt to sign him to a more reasonable offer sheet, knowing full well Minnesota will match and then pursue a trade after the fact. With either of these events occurring, I would assume Harding would make somewhere in the vicinity of $1-$2 million, which is quite the raise for him.

Small edit: My friend Kevin pointed out we could also trade for his rights as a restricted free agent and sign him ourselves. That completely slipped my mind. It probably wouldn't cost us any less in assets to acquire him, but we'd then be able to negotiate the contract ourselves, and perhaps before he actually hit restricted free agency.

In order to acquire him the Flyers could offer any number of assets, and I would really do whatever it takes to get it done. I’ve kind of already mentally committed myself to the idea that two of Lupul, Jones, and Carle will not/should not be on this team next season because we could really use the salary cap relief and we have realistic replacement options (JVR, Nodl, Maroon, Sbisa, Marshall, Bodrov…the list goes on). I’d also be open to moving those three players in that order of preference: Lupul, Jones, then Carle. Additionally, the Flyers can of course offer some combination of picks and prospects. I think an offer of Lupul and a 3^rd round pick is a reasonable offer. If my assumption that Harding would garner a 2^nd round pick as compensation is correct, an offer of Lupul and a 3^rd is even superior to that. And as I said earlier, I’d add to this if necessary. I’d start with Jones, but I think it’s highly unrealistic to expect Minnesota to take on $7.5 million in cap space. However, if they would do that for some unknown reason, all the better for us. I’d prefer to try to lose Jones’ contract in the deal as well, but really, it’s a pipe dream. A trade of Lupul and a 3^rd (and potentially additional picks and prospects) for Harding would net the Flyers a very young and cheap potential #1 goaltender while gaining a net of ~$2.5 million in cap space.

The second half of my ideal move would be to sign Craig Anderson. He only had a cap hit of .550k this past season, but after a stellar year, and the possibility being the starting goaltender of a team he will probably want, and get, a significantly higher salary. He’s also only 27. I think a 2-3 year deal at $2-$2.5 million a year is a great offer for Anderson. The Flyers would get another relatively young, relatively cheap potential starting goaltender out of the deal.

With a sign and/or trade of Harding and the signing of Anderson the Flyers bring in two young goaltenders, coming off fantastic seasons, that don’t make a lot of money. Worst case scenario, I see the two of them costing a combined $4.5 million; that is 0.275 cheaper than the cap hit the Flyers took for Biron and Niittymaki last season. I also think the potential of Harding and Anderson is far greater than that of Biron and Niittymaki. Don’t get me wrong, this is a bit of a risky move. Neither of these guys have proven they can be starting goaltenders, because they never have really even been given the chance (Anderson did play his fair share this season though). However, this is a search for the long term goaltender of the Flyers; no more 2-3 year stop gaps for the coming of the goalie prospect we never have. I’d give Harding every opportunity to have the starting job because he is younger and I believe has more potential. However, in reality, it’s a competition. The better goalie is going to play, and by bringing in the both of them, there is less risk. I’d like to think one of them can take the next step and become a starting goalie.

However, this isn’t the end of my rationale. What would happen if both of them flop, and the Flyers are left without a capable goaltender? Well, both goalies are on relatively cheap contracts. The Flyers would have wiggle room in order to go out and trade for a “true” goaltender if need be. The Flyers had no such wiggle room last year, which prompted the trading of Upshall. This scenario allows for room because we actually spend less on our goalies than last season. Additionally, both Harding’s and Anderson’s contracts will be relatively short and cheap, which means they will be highly movable. We can include either of them in a trade we would need to make for a true #1. Truth be told though, I really think at least one of the two will have what it takes to take the #1 job and keep it; and if that is the case, the Flyers have their starting goalie for the next 5+ years.

There’s an added benefit to taking this route as well. Assuming a combination of Harding and Anderson makes 0.275k less than Biron and Niitty made, and Lupul was traded in a deal for Harding, that is a net gain of $4.525 million in cap space for the Flyers. That is $4.525 million that can be used elsewhere; either for extensions (Coburn, Parent, Giroux), bringing in a free agent defenseman (Bouwmeester, Ohlund, Beauchemin), or a free agent center that can win faceoffs and is defensively sound (Pahlsson, Malhotra). Essentially, this deal allows us to upgrade in other places as well.